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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jul 5, 2020 12:27:17 GMT
The public will be to blame if there is second wave or there is a bit of a spike due to the pubs and other services being open. That is because we have been told we can do these things if we follow the social distancing guidelines and are responsible citizens. The scenes in Soho and other scenes around the country are people not doing either of those things, they are people being selfish, reckless and just wanting to get lashed. People know the situation, or they should, so sorry, but in my book when people turn up and join in with this kind of thing instead of deciding to walk away and be responsible, it's on them, not the government. If it then means that there is a second wave and other sectors suffer, it's on them, not the government. No, the government is to blame. We are run by a bunch of libertarian inclined politicians who were so against the idea of state intervention that they were willing to kill half a million people. All because ‘liberty’. Other nations that have been successful, across Europe and places like Korea, Japan etc have governments who actually govern. As such they have people who actually listen. This whole disaster about guidelines instead of rules is really the last straw. Same with the similarly inclined rulers of America and Brazil. The pattern is clear.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jul 5, 2020 1:49:58 GMT
If there is a second lockdown then any Arts funding announced this week will be the first thing cut sadly. (Second will be university funding where not only Covid-19 is causing massive but a total ban on Chinese students being allowed to study in the uk is where the Tory party, rightly or wrongly, are heading.) The government told universities and schools to attract Chinese students. I mean, literally, told. It has been all part of the plan to spread British education globally. Long term plans, strategies, the lot. If the government even think of trying to reverse that without the requisite compensation court cases are going to start flying in.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jul 4, 2020 11:59:38 GMT
In case anyone thinks that it is about money, maybe look into the issue of contracts to source PPE. A chocolatier, a pest control company an employment agency with a few hundred quid in assets, shady tax avoiders and so on,
If theatres had moonlighted as crony capitalists, they would have had millions given to them.
That’s the government we have.
I’ll be interested to see how the forthcoming package measures up against similar ones in other European countries,
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jul 4, 2020 10:36:41 GMT
Newsnight segment with Nick Hytner and Pitlochry AD, Elizabeth Newman,
Talk of how profits are divided are fine but the reality is that any sort of profit is unlikely, given low public confidence and running costs needing to be covered.
Usual reactionary scum in the comments plus added loons (Bill Gates virus etc.).
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jul 3, 2020 15:07:35 GMT
Labour have always supported the opening of schools. The critical word is ‘safe’ and nothing has changed, primarily it was the heads teaching staff who were uncomfortable with the initial plans for the 1st Jun and most teachers are union members it was easier to malign the Unions. Now the Government have to prove the measures introduced have significantly reduced the risks as much as possible as zero risk is unattainable. Through now teaching unions are still much more skeptical than Labour. Parents. Parents are sceptical. It’s all about parents. Government will try and say it is about unions but only the gullible will fall for it.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jul 1, 2020 18:30:18 GMT
A useful set of graphs showing the above.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jul 1, 2020 17:59:11 GMT
There are a small number of people who would find difficulty wearing a mask, the vast majority of whom will be known to their GP/carer/therapist etc. A simple exemption photocard would be all that is needed to sort them out from the selfish chancers who are going around spewing all sorts of disinfomation.
Apparently they believe they cause hypertension, hypercarbia, hypoxemia, pleurisy and any other medical term they don’t understand but seems to fit their prejudice, The anti masker and anti vaxxer Venn diagram appears to overlap greatly, unsurprisingky. A lot of the dangerously gullible conspiracy theory crowd in the main added to by the crazed libertarians (Alex Jones et al) who believe it infringes their freedom to kill other people or something.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jul 1, 2020 12:26:41 GMT
Arts, media, etc. are not there to be nice to governments, Their history, right from ancient Greece, is for them to challenge the powerful.
If they are so petty as to not want to help theatre because they are not nice to them, then we can see them for what they really are. Weak, cowardly, vindictive people.
No money if you attack us? It is astonishing, in this day and age, that anyone would even raise that as an issue.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jul 1, 2020 0:29:46 GMT
Broadway producers are looking at March as well, starting getting things moving after Christmas and then opening a couple of months later. All subject to wherever we are at the time, obviously.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 30, 2020 10:24:50 GMT
As of this coming Saturday you can... up to a point:
Whether or not you should is a different question. We locked down too late, we have had one of the highest per-capita death tolls in the world, and we are opening up sooner, in terms of where the rate of daily infections is, than some other countries have done. The government guidelines indicate changes to who you may meet, and where, but they explicitly do not signify an end to social distancing. I'm not saying don't, but I would suggest caution - and perhaps caution over and above what that government website is suggesting.
We didn't lock down late except with tons of hindsight - the scientists told us to lock down at what they though was the same stage Italy did - because they thought we were weeks behind Italy. No. Plenty of people knew that we were not locking down early enough. In healthcare and beyond. Those who didn't want to (in SAGE, in government and the public) now must bear the guilt of that. Plenty of us had foresight (even in the general public, as seen on here, although the thread has been deleted from that time).
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 28, 2020 18:06:16 GMT
This is why theatre is not something the government cares about - because it sees it as something for the 48% and not the 52%. Gove, given that he says he looks to FDR will also know that, in that period of history, through the WPA and the Federal Theatre Project, Roosevelt poured money into the arts to save jobs and livelihoods. He will also probably know that it was a roaring success but was shut down because it raised uncomfortable issues about the state of the USA at the time. That's artists for you, always wanting a better world (they wanted, you know, stuff like racial integration). I get the impression he sees only government structures as the problem. Fine if he takes a hammer to them but it will achieve little as the problems here come from the way that society as a whole is structured. Breaking existing societal structures down and rebuilding them may have my support but I doubt that's the sort of 'radical' that he is thinking about. Another worry is how he seems to think that government needs more data scientists. Many of us will have personal experience on how data can be used to make 'a' seem as though it is 'b', so the idea that it's the road to happiness raises a massive warning sign in my eyes. " as a good primer for this period, a good watch is the film 'Cradle Will Rock' about the furore surrounding the musical of the same name.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 27, 2020 21:03:40 GMT
They are picking fights with selected areas to distract from their utter failure. Lockdown too late and too weak, so that we never came close, in England, to low enough levels of transmission mean that they need a scapegoat. Who usually gets attacked? Not pubs or shops, it’s ‘luvvies’ and teachers. In education they have now moved the goalposts to drop any meaningful protection in trying to provoke a battle, the pathetic five point plan for the arts is the same. They want a war as a distraction and their targets are carefully chosen. And Labour are now against the NEU as well. Not sure where you got the idea that Labour are of any relevance here. The idea of ‘all back’ is being seen as highly suspicious by many parents regarding the lack of safety for their children (who would infect each other, then parents, then grandparents some way down the line). Parental surveys are what to look out for, here. Labour are powerless (literally), what they say and do on these issues means very little.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 27, 2020 15:35:20 GMT
The way that people like supermarket workers have been used and abused has been terrible. It's the whole attitude that picks on the weak and then holds them up as an example for others to follow.
When someone says 'well, if a & b can do it then so can x & y' the answer is not to endanger a & b in the first place. It's no wonder that workers in public facing jobs that continued during lockdown have had higher mortality. Taxi & bus drivers etc. Who would be one of them in a week's time when the pubs turn out?
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 27, 2020 12:45:54 GMT
That is just a weird comment, but it's an economist, so.... I see we might be getting an actual fourth wall, though ("One suggestion has been to put up a clear screen between the cast and audience."). What if they spit on it, does it have to be cleaned between scenes?
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 27, 2020 12:39:33 GMT
Fransplaining (noun) - Explaining French government policy, in a manner regarded as condescending or patronising, to a French national. The comment was saying it wasn't Macron's personal plan, the French website says Macron announced the plan. It's splitting hairs but I get that Macron is widely disliked in France. I wasn't trying to make him look like theatre's saviour. If Johnson had done the same, we would be saying the same, I imagine. The salient point is that France is doing more then the UK. Why are we not doing this or more?
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 27, 2020 11:17:26 GMT
On universities, it was demands from government that led to large increases in overseas students. Now that they may not return the attitude is pretty much ‘well, it’s your problem now’. Government (various ones going back years) yet again washing its hands of its own failure and blaming others for it instead.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 27, 2020 11:11:34 GMT
I think it's telling two industries, the arts and Universities seen as anti tory are being shafted - the new plans for uni's will shrink them a lot. They are picking fights with selected areas to distract from their utter failure. Lockdown too late and too weak, so that we never came close, in England, to low enough levels of transmission mean that they need a scapegoat. Who usually gets attacked? Not pubs or shops, it’s ‘luvvies’ and teachers. In education they have now moved the goalposts to drop any meaningful protection in trying to provoke a battle, the pathetic five point plan for the arts is the same. They want a war as a distraction and their targets are carefully chosen.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 27, 2020 11:03:10 GMT
Theatres have been regularly surveying their audience, so they have a good idea of potential audience size. Many London shows, in particular, rely on tourists who are also unlikely to turn up. I am invlined to believe the people in the business when they say the above. Opening to give audiences a choice is not an option if that leads to greater losses as running costs hasten financial problems. This is Macron’s plan. It is still not in any way comprehensive but it points to an interventionist attitude. The UK government’s laissez faire approach is anything but. ”Macron's key announcement that unemployment benefits for the entertainment sector would be extended until August 2021 applies to performers and technicians with short-term contracts, known as "intermittents du spectacle", who need to clock up a certain number of hours to be eligible for financial aid.” www.rfi.fr/en/culture/20200506-macron-announces-plan-to-save-french-culture-from-grip-of-covid-19-funds-coronavirusWith respect, that is not 'Macron's plan'. All sectors of the economy were told clearly to organise themselves for restart and almost everything was legally able to open under safety regs at the beginning of June (22 June for Paris) So theatres can offer a programme for autumn opening and audiences have some level of confidence in booking - important given the subscription model here. Plus there is social support but it goes alongside the restart plan. It's not perfect but it's been reasonably clear. Theatres in UK should be legally permitted to open under regs at the same time as bars and restaurants. There's a strong case for support during the restart phase as well but lobbying to stay closed isn't going to succeed nor should it. Whether it’s personally Macron’s or someone else in government is neither here nor there. The bottom line is that France is backing up its words with money and the UK government isn’t. Theatres must get that support or they will go under. ‘Allowing’ them to open is meaningless without further financial support for both the organisations and the workforce. Lobbying is not to stay closed it is to open and survive, whilst protecting those who remain jobless. Look at Germany, their higher levels of subsidy and a truly supportive government regarding the arts are able to open later in the year with the knowledge that they can survive on much lower audiences. Maybe you haven’t picked up the widespread disgust at the government’s supposed ‘plan’ here. www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-53182634
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 27, 2020 1:27:34 GMT
It's great apart from where he says that 'we cannot safely open theatres now' and 'no-one would come if we did' In France, before 21 June we had a 50% capacity cap on theatres and cinemas. This week, that cap was abolished. What's left is the requirement to have one seat empty between booking families, which can be up to 10 people who know each other. There's a plan for full seating for the autumn. That's where UK theatre should be today. People are going to the cinema again over here. Pubs will be busy next week. Theatre isn't any more risky for audiences but we don't seem willing to give audiences a choice. Theatres have been regularly surveying their audience, so they have a good idea of potential audience size. Many London shows, in particular, rely on tourists who are also unlikely to turn up. I am invlined to believe the people in the business when they say the above. Opening to give audiences a choice is not an option if that leads to greater losses as running costs hasten financial problems. This is Macron’s plan. It is still not in any way comprehensive but it points to an interventionist attitude. The UK government’s laissez faire approach is anything but. ”Macron's key announcement that unemployment benefits for the entertainment sector would be extended until August 2021 applies to performers and technicians with short-term contracts, known as "intermittents du spectacle", who need to clock up a certain number of hours to be eligible for financial aid.” www.rfi.fr/en/culture/20200506-macron-announces-plan-to-save-french-culture-from-grip-of-covid-19-funds-coronavirus
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 23, 2020 22:22:11 GMT
A few to look at are - Public Health @devisridhar (Edinburgh) @trishgreenhalgh (Oxford) @azeem_Majeed (Imperial) Epidmiologist @drzoehyde (Australia) @epiellie (Boston) Statistician (epidemiology) @maartenvsmeden (Utrecht) @drsarahjarvis also good for the ‘media medic’ perspective. Hope i got all of the twitter handles right. You can get an idea of others from these as they converse with colleagues as well as the general public. Thank you @epiellie with capitals, knew I’d get one wrong. (Weird, the first two e’s should be capitalised but it saves them as lower case, same for some of the others. Must be because it thinks they are emails or something). I also follow cardiologists and cardiovascular types, as I have a congenital condition which brings these things into play. It’s like Christmas for medics when they find out I have this, there are maybe about 5000 in the UK like me and many won’t be aware of it until something happens. I have to wear a tag, just in case I keel over and can’t tell them about it. Any guesses what it is? Answer is Dextrocardia. My heart is on the right not the left, an ill judged surgeon’s knife could be a real problem (though I might survive a firing squad, on the off chance that ever happens to me).
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 23, 2020 21:48:58 GMT
I follow a number of epidemiologists, public health people and similar on twitter. It’s great that, in these times, we can now go right to the source, rather than allowing politicians and press to ‘interpret’. It also shows how much pf what government has done is pure politics, cherrypicking that which gets them what they wanted in the first place. Some of those frequently quoted people? Out of step and sometimes downright cranks. We would never have known that, even a decade ago. Would you mind giving the names of those you follow? Cheers! A few to look at are - Public Health @devisridhar (Edinburgh) @trishgreenhalgh (Oxford) @azeem_Majeed (Imperial) Epidmiologist @drzoehyde (Australia) @epiellie (Boston) Statistician (epidemiology) @maartenvsmeden (Utrecht) @drsarahjarvis also good for the ‘media medic’ perspective. Hope i got all of the twitter handles right. You can get an idea of others from these as they converse with colleagues as well as the general public.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 23, 2020 1:27:57 GMT
Grateful to be in the company of so many theatre lovers who also are such knowledgeable epidemiologists, sociologist, and public policy analysts.
It's a pity more people don't read. This is Andrew Slavitt, who was in charge of implementing the Affordable Care Act under the Obama administration, on CNN last week: "Look at the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic wore masks for a very short period of time. And now they have basically eradicated the virus at least for now, and they're able to go back to the work, go back to their jobs without masks. I have been a proponent of saying if President Trump did one thing, if he wore a mask and encouraged supporters to wear a mask for three weeks straight, he would be - we would be sitting here four weeks, about five, about six weeks from now with much of the virus behind us.
And so, that's the kind of leadership that I know he doesn't want to put forward for a variety of reasons, but if he did it would be one of the simplest things that could save a lot of lives and get the economy back."CNN Newsroom transcript, June 11th 2020
There's a New York Times article covering similar ground, but I've misplaced the link.
I follow a number of epidemiologists, public health people and similar on twitter. It’s great that, in these times, we can now go right to the source, rather than allowing politicians and press to ‘interpret’. It also shows how much pf what government has done is pure politics, cherrypicking that which gets them what they wanted in the first place. Some of those frequently quoted people? Out of step and sometimes downright cranks. We would never have known that, even a decade ago.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 21, 2020 13:14:29 GMT
Social distancing going down to one metre from Tuesday: Well. that means none at all. Two metres translated to ‘about a metre’ for most people, it appeared, so one metre will translate to ‘not touching someone else if I can avoid it’ It’s as though England actively wants to turn out like Florida.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 20, 2020 10:30:22 GMT
I don’t think you can live your life In fear forever With you in spirit and it's commonly used phrasing, but people practicing sound personal risk management choices is not necessarily synonymous with living their life in fear. Not suggesting you're making that specific assertion, but some who use the phrase most definitely are: "If you aren't willing to do XX, you're just living your life in fear." For all of history people have weighed the costs and benefits of various options. We now just have another set of risks and variables to factor into our decision-making about which rewards are worthy. It’s cold hearted logic. Neil, above, mentioned ‘under fifty, no underlying conditions’ and, well, I’m neither. I know that to take the risk would be foolhardy, just as me not playing Russian Roulette with a loaded gun wouldn’t be ‘living my life in e fear’. There are now some proper risk scoring systems being used for work assessments, for example. Wales looks to be ahead of the game on that one and I come out as ‘high risk’, so if my job will have to make accommodations I’m not going to be putting myself intentionally at greater risk elsewhere. It’s just logical, not letting your heart rule your head.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 17, 2020 15:28:34 GMT
It's the mix of 'show' and 'business' again. Audiences focus on the former but even subsidised theatres (because they are answerable to government) have to prioritise the latter. Just because a part of the audience wants to go into a theatre now it doesn't mean that it can happen. On running costs alone it isn't viable (didn't Sonia Friedman suggest she needs 75% houses now?) and that's before you even start thinking about the safety aspect.
Theatre will return with something that is economically viable, for CM his shows won't be able to plan for that for a very long time. The more adaptable the space, the better. Maybe the Barbican could adapt some of the larger open areas or use the outdoors areas. Somewhere like the BAC could move things into the Great Hall which is massive compared to the shows they often have but it's their and they can spread the audience far and wide. Victoria Palace? It's only good for being what it currently is, and that's not enough.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 14, 2020 18:48:33 GMT
INFP - Mediator. Much of it rings true, especially the creative bit and management style. The picture makes me e look like a hippy flower-child, though, and those days are long gone.....
EDIT: Just noticed there’s been a lot on IN types so far (mine is INFP).
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 13, 2020 11:11:05 GMT
The way that younger people have realised they have power now has been a breath of fresh air, especially as government has sidelined youth at the expense of older voters for years. A few weeks ago - ‘young people don’t die from this virus, we have to let young, healthy people go about their lives and help to save the economy’. Then - lockdown relaxed and younger people find out that they own the streets because this virus frees them, compared to the older cohort who have been consolidating their power through voter ‘bribes’. Now - ‘you weren’t supposed to use your freedom to protest about things you cared about! Dammit, you’re supposed to be propping up the economy so I can maintain my comfy lifestyle! Makes you weep......(with laughter) The young are free to a distance of two metres and gatherings of 6 people. Not free to "own the streets" and gather in the thousands. Also the economy needs to be propped up by those able for the interest of everyone, not just those with a comfy lifestyle. You may notice that it's theatre workers, shop assistants, airport and airline staff, car engineers and other low paid jobs that are being lost, not those with a "comfy lifestyle". The restrictions have been so much watered down by the government libertarians that they may as well not exist. Look at beaches and supermarkets, a hell of a lot of (not just young) people have got the message that the government thinks all this distancing stuff isn’t needed. Just today, all the right wing press going on about how ‘industry leaders demand that the two metre rule is changed’. The irony is that their love of ‘freeedooom’ means that everyone can use it for their own ends, not theirs. This economy does not ‘need to be propped up’, not when the reward is so meagre and so weighted against the young. Weigh it up and it is in their long term interests to wrest control of it away. ‘Do what we tell you and you too can scrape a living, paying high rents and with no job security.’. That’s really going to work.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 13, 2020 10:49:24 GMT
The way that younger people have realised they have power now has been a breath of fresh air, especially as government has sidelined youth at the expense of older voters for years.
A few weeks ago - ‘young people don’t die from this virus, we have to let young, healthy people go about their lives and help to save the economy’.
Then - lockdown relaxed and younger people find out that they own the streets because this virus frees them, compared to the older cohort who have been consolidating their power through voter ‘bribes’.
Now - ‘you weren’t supposed to use your freedom to protest about things you cared about! Dammit, you’re supposed to be propping up the economy so I can maintain my comfy lifestyle!
Makes you weep......(with laughter)
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 6, 2020 8:57:56 GMT
And yet it is fine to crowd into the centre of London and shout your head off etc etc.. tiring even repeating this observation. Who is calling the shots here? Is it the nice weather - o for a downpour - or the Cummings effect or what that seems to give people the confidence to ignore all warnings whatsoever. There are ways to protest without tramping into Trafalgar Square and thereby killing your granny, your asthmatic auntie, your pal with the heart condition and your black nurse. Government bear a massive responsibility for this, with SAGE in conjunction. The idea to tell people that masks were not needed early on made a rod for their collective backs. The reason? They have been too wedded to the idea that only when evidence is clear should measures be brought in. Using the phrase ‘there is no evidence’ has hurt messaging in a devastating way and has led people to believe it is a settled conclusion when all that is being said is ‘we aren’t sure yet’. Take masks, looking at far eastern countries should have made clear their efficacy yet waiting for clinical studies where none are practicable has millions not caring about them. The time was in March, now it is going to need to fight to take hold and the most recalcitrant will just point to ‘you said there was no evidence’. Idiots, naturally, but idiots who have been given cause by government/PHE. There are other issues coming up that will be the same. Who is at risk, for example, and the risk lists which have been absolutely shambolic. Basing them on Influenza for what is now becoming clearer as something that resolves into a cardiovascular disease has left many unwarned (in this country at least, most others are more forward thinking and less sclerotic) and some warned unnecessarily. Why? Because ‘evidence’. In a pandemic waiting for clinical trials that are slow moving or not even ethically possible is the downfall of evidence based medicine. It is this wait for evidence mindset that also, more than anything, did for us at the start. Initially arrogant and slow moving followed by panic and mixed messaging and then complacency and confusion, Look at the countries that did well, they looked at the far east and copied, they went hard, they went early. Our ‘go late, go soft’ policy, something that was supposed to save the economy, instead making it many, many times worse. Medical leaders who were playing the wrong game that gave government libertarians the opportunity to do nothing or do too little. This article explains looks at mask issue in greater detail. www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/05/face-masks-coronavirus
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on May 30, 2020 16:59:37 GMT
As mentioned, the Japanese 3 C's messaging is good. Also, don't forget that they already have the mask wearing culture that we would do well to emulate. The one needs the other to be effective.
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